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Deciding just when to buy an airline ticket for this holiday season has been a bit like trying to predict the direction of the stock market. In early October, holiday airfares were about 25% higher than last year, only to take a dive in November. Last-minute Thanksgiving travel bargains were abundant this year, but now that the first part of that holiday rush is behind us, what about hitting the skies this Christmas?
Well, that depends on where you’re headed. In a completely unscientific test, a search of 15 routes on [Farecast](http://farecast.live.com/) showed only three itineraries—Boston to Miami, San Francisco to Denver, and Seattle to Chicago—were trending down, which suggests that the December holidays won’t necessarily reward stragglers the way Thanksgiving did.
Then again, there might still be a clue as to where airfares are headed. This month, the flight gurus at Farecast [compared](http://farecast.live.com/blog/) the swing in average flight costs to the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Turns out, the two indices move in roughly the same direction. While Farecast cautions against trying to time the airfare market by looking at the stock market, they’re keeping an eye on this trend. And so will we.
